Last week on the ATP Tour Del Potro won his first title of 2017, which was the defence of the Stockholm title, and he defeated top seed Dimitrov in the final. Second seed Tsonga won his fourth title of 2017 and his third indoors at Antwerp where he defeated Schwartzman in the final and finally, sixth seed Dzumhur clearly likes playing indoors in Russia he added the Moscow title to his St Petersburg one after he defeated the unseeded Berankis in the final.
On to this week’s action and there are two ATP 500 indoor tournaments in Basel, Switzerland and Vienna, Austria. Seven time Basel Winner and defending champion Roger Federer returns as the top seed this week and will attempt to win a record eighth home title, which will take him second in the all-time overall ATP title winners list ahead of Lendl. History is on Federer’s side as well as the top-seed has won six of the last ten titles at Basel (last Federer 2015) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last Federer 2012).
The second seed does not have a great record at Basel winning two of the last ten titles (last 2012) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period, which does not bode well for second seed and defending champion Cilic’s chances this week. Seeded players in general have a strong record at Basel and a player seeded no higher than four won the last ten titles (last Cilic 2016) and a player seeded no higher than seven was a losing finalist eight times during this period (last Nadal 2015).
Unseeded players don’t have a good record at Basel and they have never won the title over the last decade and an unseeded player was a losing finalist twice during this period (last Nishikori Wild Card 2011). From a betting perspective it’s hard to look past Federer on current form and given his record at this event. Fourth Seed Del Potro could be the player to meet him in the final from the bottom half of the draw if he can maintain his Stockholm form this week.
At Vienna top-seed Alexander Zverev is the favourite to win this week and history and statistics are on his side as the top-seed has won six of the last ten titles at Vienna (last Murray 2016) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last Ferrer 2014). The second seed has not performed as well at Vienna over the last decade winning two of the last ten titles (last Murray 2014) and they were a losing finalist once during this period (2011), which does not bode well for home hope’s chances Thiem this week.
Seeded players in general have a good record at Vienna and a player seeded no higher than seven won nine of the last ten titles (last Murray 2016) and seeded player no higher than eight was a losing finalist five times during this period (last Tsonga 2016). Unseeded players have experienced some success at Vienna over the last decade having won one of the last ten titles (last 2008) and an unseeded player was a losing finalist five times during this period (last Johnson 2015).
From a betting perspective fourth seed Carreno-Busta (33/1) cannot be ignored at such a huge price and the motivation should still be there with a place at the year-end Tour Finals still up for grabs. With five unseeded players reaching the final over the last decade its worth selecting a couple that could spring a surprise this week. Fognini (50/1) is playing well enough indoors having reached the semi-finals at Stockholm last week, the final at St Petersburg a few weeks ago and as a result he looks overpriced as a result. Another veteran Gasquet (18/1) is comfortable on all surfaces including indoors and he is playing well enough to go well this week having performed well at Tokyo and Shanghai, where it took eventual winners Goffin and Federer to stop him.